If you are a hockey nut be sure to be seated when you read this. Also keep in mind this is a first proposal from the owners in what should be a long and ugly negotiating process. Talk had been that things were somewhat smooth in the initial conversations between the owners and NHLPA, but it looks like the ugliness is about to begin and lockout appears to be coming.
Here are the major sticking points of what the owners offered the NHLPA:
1) They want to reduce the player share of hockey related revenues (HRR for short) from 57% to 46%.
They also want to redefine what revenues are part of HRR in order to reduce the amount and the percentage share. The owners are literally shooting for the moon on this point as it is clearly their starting point for the negotiations.
2) Player must play 10 seasons in the NHL before being eligible for unrestricted free agency.
This is another way they can control salaries. The owners hate the bidding wars that go on during free agency. This year with Suter and Parise being no exception. Had either landed with the Blackhawks they would have been the highest paid players at their respective positions despite not being the best players at those positions. That only results in the best players wanting more. It's an endless cycle
3) Player contracts can be no longer than 5 years.
This or something close to it was going to happen anyways. So this is actually a point the players may concede on to be able to gain ground in other areas like the HRR share and the way that is computed. So basically say goodbye to the lifetime deals like Hossa, Suter, Parise, Luongo, Pronger etc...
4) Eliminate salary arbitration
The owners rarely in salary arbitration so they may as well try to get rid of it. Arbitration is an ugly process anyway because the organization basically has to sit there with the player and arbitrator and tell them why that player does not deserve more money. Basically it is a "you stink because...."
5) Entry contracts for rookies are 5 years instead of 3
This is designed to slow down young players from getting bigger pay days earlier. It won't really effect high 1st round picks as much because they are already getting a decent salary. However guys like Andrew Shaw who came out of nowhere would have to wait 5 years to be fairly compensated. I would bet this ends up in the middle at 4 years.
6) Salaries are to be paid evenly every year of a contract
This basically wipes out signing bonuses in the first year or two of a contract. A ploy that large market teams would use to go after free agents.
You can see that a lot of the offer is designed around trying to keep teams together longer, and have longer control over players through the first 10 years of their career. That's great if you draft well, especially in the lower rounds.
The biggest concern to me is the redefining of what is part of HRR. The owners will get a few percentage points of the revenue to swing in their favor. However, if they are allowed to redefine HRR it will end up being well more than a couple percent. They will drastically reduce the amount of revenue shown to the players.
These are just random numbers for example, but if the NHL made $2 billion last year at 57% the players share was $1.14 billion. If they got the 46% of $2 billion is would be $920 million. However let's say the owners are allowed to redefine the revenue and get it down to $1.5 billion. At 46% that just $690 millions. Even at 57% that is only $855 million, which is less than the 46% of what currently would define HRR.
Hockey fans are going to hear a lot about HRR in the coming months. Like I said though, this is just a starting point. Hopefully the NHL and NHLPA come to a resolution without a lockout and don't miss any games. It would be a shame to stunt the growth hockey has seen the past couple of years.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Monday, July 9, 2012
Captain Kirk Returns
The Bulls finally made a ripple in the ocean that is NBA free agency. As has been speculated since the opening of NBA free agency Kirk Hinrich will be returning to the Bulls. It was reported Sunday he has agreed to a 2 year $6 million deal.
Can't say I am shocked. Paxson always loved Hinrich despite his obvious flaws. So with the Bulls wanting (not necessarily needing) to be cheap since this is going to be a lost season they brought Hinrich back at a reasonable cost.
Personally, I have liked Hinrich since his days as a Jayhawk. He's a decent (not good) shooter when open. Not so decent (dribble dribble clank) when guarded. He's a "try hard" guy with a little better than "try hard" talent. He plays bigger than he is defensively and will fit well in Coach Thibodeau's defensive system. The defensive aspect and his leadership will outweigh his offensive shortcomings.
The signing of Hinrich means CJ Watson will likely not be brought back. He was due $3.2 million if they brought him back. Watson more than fulfilled his role backing up Derrick Rose the last couple years until he completely disappeard against the 76ers in the playoffs after Rose got hurt. I thought Watson had a great chance to play himself into a big contract elsewhere, but completely blew it.
So it is safe to assume that Hinrich will be the starting PG while Rose is still recovering from knee surgery. Once Rose returns expect Hinrich to take a super sub role and back up Rose and Rip Hamilton as needed. That is of course if Hamilton is healthy enough to play. The thought of relying on Hinrich as the starting SG is frightening. We've see what Rose's penetration skills have done to improve Deng's outside shooting. Hopefully it will have the same effect on Hinrich.
Also reported that John Lucas III has drawn interest from the Miami Heat. I know a lot of people like him, but he's no loss if he goes elsewhere. I'd rather see what we have in Marquis Teague, especially if we are looking at struggling for most of this season.
Fortunately free agency has not really changed a lot of teams landscapes this year in East. Obviously the Nets have gotten, and may get even better with the possibility of landing Dwight Howard. The Magic and Hawks got worse though. So the Bulls will still have a shot to make the playoffs. Most likely as a 7 or 8 seed unless the Pacers struggle. Outside of Indy their division is nothing special and winnable even with half a season from Rose and Deng.
It appears that the future of Ronnie Brewer and Kyly Korver are still up in the air. Brewer is due $4.37 million and Korver $5 million if they are brought back. The problem is they are right at the salary cap. So with luxury tax it basically doubles the cost of those contracts. And that is not even factoring in the Asik dilemma.
I know one thing for sure. Until Rose and Deng are back I will be fearfully watching with my hands covering my face and eyes peeking between my fingers.
Can't say I am shocked. Paxson always loved Hinrich despite his obvious flaws. So with the Bulls wanting (not necessarily needing) to be cheap since this is going to be a lost season they brought Hinrich back at a reasonable cost.
Personally, I have liked Hinrich since his days as a Jayhawk. He's a decent (not good) shooter when open. Not so decent (dribble dribble clank) when guarded. He's a "try hard" guy with a little better than "try hard" talent. He plays bigger than he is defensively and will fit well in Coach Thibodeau's defensive system. The defensive aspect and his leadership will outweigh his offensive shortcomings.
The signing of Hinrich means CJ Watson will likely not be brought back. He was due $3.2 million if they brought him back. Watson more than fulfilled his role backing up Derrick Rose the last couple years until he completely disappeard against the 76ers in the playoffs after Rose got hurt. I thought Watson had a great chance to play himself into a big contract elsewhere, but completely blew it.
So it is safe to assume that Hinrich will be the starting PG while Rose is still recovering from knee surgery. Once Rose returns expect Hinrich to take a super sub role and back up Rose and Rip Hamilton as needed. That is of course if Hamilton is healthy enough to play. The thought of relying on Hinrich as the starting SG is frightening. We've see what Rose's penetration skills have done to improve Deng's outside shooting. Hopefully it will have the same effect on Hinrich.
Also reported that John Lucas III has drawn interest from the Miami Heat. I know a lot of people like him, but he's no loss if he goes elsewhere. I'd rather see what we have in Marquis Teague, especially if we are looking at struggling for most of this season.
Fortunately free agency has not really changed a lot of teams landscapes this year in East. Obviously the Nets have gotten, and may get even better with the possibility of landing Dwight Howard. The Magic and Hawks got worse though. So the Bulls will still have a shot to make the playoffs. Most likely as a 7 or 8 seed unless the Pacers struggle. Outside of Indy their division is nothing special and winnable even with half a season from Rose and Deng.
It appears that the future of Ronnie Brewer and Kyly Korver are still up in the air. Brewer is due $4.37 million and Korver $5 million if they are brought back. The problem is they are right at the salary cap. So with luxury tax it basically doubles the cost of those contracts. And that is not even factoring in the Asik dilemma.
I know one thing for sure. Until Rose and Deng are back I will be fearfully watching with my hands covering my face and eyes peeking between my fingers.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Roberto Luongo To the Blackhawks?
Vancouver Canucks GM Mike Gillis may not be publicly showing it yet, but he is going to be desperate to move Roberto Luongo at some point before the season. I don't see any way Luongo can walk back into the Vancouver locker room at this point.
Luongo spoke publicly this past week and acknowledged that his time in Vancouver is over and he is ready to move on. His preferred destination is the Florida Panthers. They are a good young team that is definitely on the rise, and he would be a nice piece since they really struggled in the net this year. However, the Panthers have their goalie of the future in Jacob Markstrom. They have no reason to bring in a veteran goalie who probably has another 5 to 6 good years in him.
That leaves two options floating in the rumor circles right now. The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Blackhawks. I think at this point the Maple Leafs are the odds on favorite. Especially considering they don't play the Canucks more than twice a year. Whereas they see plenty of the Blackhawks. It will all depend what Toronto is willing to offer up though. Regardless of a rivalry though, Gillis has to take the offer that makes his team better.
Anytime a goalie is mentioned in free agency or the possibility of a trade all the "experts" assume the Blackhawks will get involved. I trust that the Hawks coaches and brass will know whether or not they can get Corey Crawford back to his 2010-11 form. It seems that the "experts" don't think that will happen.
If the Hawks decided to trade for Luongo, and Gillis was desperate enough to send him here I would be good with it. Here are my 3 main reasons:
1) He is better than Crawford, Emery and anything in the Hawks system.
2) His contract is long (til 2022) and cap hit is $5.333 milllion, but that will seem like a bargain as NHL revenue grows and the salary cap continues to increase.
3) He has A LOT to prove
At 33 years old Luongo is far from done. Is he a head case sometimes? Absolutely. Can he win you games by himself? Absolutely. Can he win a Stanley Cup? I think so, but that is reason #3 that I would bring him in. That's what he has left to prove. He's won Olympic Gold already. ONE GOAL as we say here in Chicago.
If the Hawks make an offer I'd have to imagine they will push to get Crawford moved in the trade. Everyone seems to want to make Hjalmarsson a center piece in this possibility. If Vancouver does take Hjalmarsson the Blackhawks might have to take back someone like defensman Andrew Alberts. Vancouver already has a lot of money committed to defense so they may want to include a defenseman coming back here.
I would guess that Stan Bowman's approach will be to wait out Vancouver and see how desperate they get. Even if Toronto made a good offer Gillis will shop it around to other suitors to get the best deal he can in return.
The thought of Roberto Luongo in the Indian head, much less being cheered in Chicago feels rather strange. However, if it fixes our goaltending issue for 5 or more years I am all in.
Luongo spoke publicly this past week and acknowledged that his time in Vancouver is over and he is ready to move on. His preferred destination is the Florida Panthers. They are a good young team that is definitely on the rise, and he would be a nice piece since they really struggled in the net this year. However, the Panthers have their goalie of the future in Jacob Markstrom. They have no reason to bring in a veteran goalie who probably has another 5 to 6 good years in him.
That leaves two options floating in the rumor circles right now. The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Blackhawks. I think at this point the Maple Leafs are the odds on favorite. Especially considering they don't play the Canucks more than twice a year. Whereas they see plenty of the Blackhawks. It will all depend what Toronto is willing to offer up though. Regardless of a rivalry though, Gillis has to take the offer that makes his team better.
Anytime a goalie is mentioned in free agency or the possibility of a trade all the "experts" assume the Blackhawks will get involved. I trust that the Hawks coaches and brass will know whether or not they can get Corey Crawford back to his 2010-11 form. It seems that the "experts" don't think that will happen.
If the Hawks decided to trade for Luongo, and Gillis was desperate enough to send him here I would be good with it. Here are my 3 main reasons:
1) He is better than Crawford, Emery and anything in the Hawks system.
2) His contract is long (til 2022) and cap hit is $5.333 milllion, but that will seem like a bargain as NHL revenue grows and the salary cap continues to increase.
3) He has A LOT to prove
At 33 years old Luongo is far from done. Is he a head case sometimes? Absolutely. Can he win you games by himself? Absolutely. Can he win a Stanley Cup? I think so, but that is reason #3 that I would bring him in. That's what he has left to prove. He's won Olympic Gold already. ONE GOAL as we say here in Chicago.
If the Hawks make an offer I'd have to imagine they will push to get Crawford moved in the trade. Everyone seems to want to make Hjalmarsson a center piece in this possibility. If Vancouver does take Hjalmarsson the Blackhawks might have to take back someone like defensman Andrew Alberts. Vancouver already has a lot of money committed to defense so they may want to include a defenseman coming back here.
I would guess that Stan Bowman's approach will be to wait out Vancouver and see how desperate they get. Even if Toronto made a good offer Gillis will shop it around to other suitors to get the best deal he can in return.
The thought of Roberto Luongo in the Indian head, much less being cheered in Chicago feels rather strange. However, if it fixes our goaltending issue for 5 or more years I am all in.
Friday, July 6, 2012
Bulls Free Agency
Apparently nobody told Garpax (my preferred term for GM Gar Forman and President of Basketball Ops John Paxson) that the NBA free agency period began July 1st. Rumor has it they have been busy voting for Jake Peavy to make the All-Star game since Sunday.
OK, well yeah they probably knew and the inactivity was pretty much expected. I hope they were busy voting though. The minority of baseball fans in Chicago were up against the country of Japan!
With Derrick Rose expected to miss most of the 2012-2013 season it's looking like the upcoming season is just going to be a wash. Play it out with what you have and hope to sneak into the playoffs. Luol Deng still does not seem sure whether or not he is having wrist surgery after the Olympics. If they are missing Rose and Deng for half the season they might average about 70 points a game during that stretch.
The free agent class this summer did not really have anything that would help this team anyway. If the Bulls were healthy they would have made a strong push for Ray Allen, but with the injuries it is just not worth going well over the salary cap and paying a ton of luxury tax money. Sure as fans we want Reinsdorf to spend money, but have to respect that he won't throw it around wastefully trying to save a lost season.
Garpax is in a bit of a quandry when it comes to Omer Asik though. The Houston Rockets signed him to an offer sheet at a little over $24 million. Because of a backwards rule in the CBA the Rockets can average that cap hit out over 3 years. However the Bulls cap hit in the final year would be $15 million, and that is way too much for a guy who currently can't catch a basketball. You would think the CBA rules would try to help teams keep the players they draft.
The Bulls love Asik because of his defense and they think he can provide offense as his game progresses. As far as I am concerned his last act as a Bull was missing two crucial free throws that helped end the playoff series against the 76ers. Good luck Houston! We have bigger priorities like keeping Taj Gibson around long term.
The two free agent options they have right now are Courtney Lee and bringing back Kirk Hinrich. The Bulls can offer one of them the mid-level exception at about $3 million. I'd throw that at Lee and use the allowed veteran's minimum of $1.2 million on Hinrich. Chances are though they will throw the bigger contract at Hinrich because people in this organization love him. Both would fit Coach Thibodeau's defensive schemes.
Speaking of Coach Thibodeau. Now that Garpax is done trying to outvote Japan they need to work on his contract extension. How in the world can you make a guy, who in his first head coaching position led a young team to the top of the East both seasons, be a lame duck coach? First of all that is disrespectful to him. Secondly, are you crazy? What if he walks? Get it done guys. He more than deserves it. If they go out and have success before Rose and Deng are back his price will go through the roof. Get him signed now!
That's all for now. Hopefully a few veteran signings to talk about soon.
OK, well yeah they probably knew and the inactivity was pretty much expected. I hope they were busy voting though. The minority of baseball fans in Chicago were up against the country of Japan!
With Derrick Rose expected to miss most of the 2012-2013 season it's looking like the upcoming season is just going to be a wash. Play it out with what you have and hope to sneak into the playoffs. Luol Deng still does not seem sure whether or not he is having wrist surgery after the Olympics. If they are missing Rose and Deng for half the season they might average about 70 points a game during that stretch.
The free agent class this summer did not really have anything that would help this team anyway. If the Bulls were healthy they would have made a strong push for Ray Allen, but with the injuries it is just not worth going well over the salary cap and paying a ton of luxury tax money. Sure as fans we want Reinsdorf to spend money, but have to respect that he won't throw it around wastefully trying to save a lost season.
Garpax is in a bit of a quandry when it comes to Omer Asik though. The Houston Rockets signed him to an offer sheet at a little over $24 million. Because of a backwards rule in the CBA the Rockets can average that cap hit out over 3 years. However the Bulls cap hit in the final year would be $15 million, and that is way too much for a guy who currently can't catch a basketball. You would think the CBA rules would try to help teams keep the players they draft.
The Bulls love Asik because of his defense and they think he can provide offense as his game progresses. As far as I am concerned his last act as a Bull was missing two crucial free throws that helped end the playoff series against the 76ers. Good luck Houston! We have bigger priorities like keeping Taj Gibson around long term.
The two free agent options they have right now are Courtney Lee and bringing back Kirk Hinrich. The Bulls can offer one of them the mid-level exception at about $3 million. I'd throw that at Lee and use the allowed veteran's minimum of $1.2 million on Hinrich. Chances are though they will throw the bigger contract at Hinrich because people in this organization love him. Both would fit Coach Thibodeau's defensive schemes.
Speaking of Coach Thibodeau. Now that Garpax is done trying to outvote Japan they need to work on his contract extension. How in the world can you make a guy, who in his first head coaching position led a young team to the top of the East both seasons, be a lame duck coach? First of all that is disrespectful to him. Secondly, are you crazy? What if he walks? Get it done guys. He more than deserves it. If they go out and have success before Rose and Deng are back his price will go through the roof. Get him signed now!
That's all for now. Hopefully a few veteran signings to talk about soon.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Strike One - Parise & Suter Not Coming To Chicago
While Zach Parise and Ryan Suter were locked away in their bunkers with their agents and families receiving ridiculous contract offers we Blackhawks fans were teased for 72 hours with dreams of signing one or both.
Both were probably out of the question because of salary cap constraints, but with a series of salary dumping moves it could have been pulled off. It appears though that it was not going to happen anyway.
In acutality it appears that only a few teams had a shot because Parise and Suter had planned to attempt to play together all along. Seemed a lot like the NBA free agent fiasco of 2010 minus "The Decision" and a current Minnesota Wild player pretending to take offers elsewhere. Yes Dwayne Wade, we know you were playing us. In fact Nashville GM, David Poile seemed pretty close to firing off a Comic Sans letter ala Dan Gilbert.
In the end they chose Minnesota for "family" reasons. In my opinion neither chose Chicago because they would not have been "The Guy" at their respective positions. The Wild are now a low seed playoff team, but far from a Cup contender. So good luck with that!
Now the Blackhawks may not have signed either, but the fact that neither went to Detroit or Nashville is a huge benefit. Both teams had plenty of cap room to sign both.
It's on to plan B now. I don't think the Blackhawks are going to sign anyone of significance through free agency. Their big signing was retaining Johnny Oduya.
I'd expect a few trades if anything. If I had to predict a trade it would be Hjalmarsson to Edmonton for Sam Gagner. The Hawks have been linked to Gagner for a few years now. He was a linemate of Patrick Kane with the London Knights in the OHL. The logic is Kane can get Gagner back to what he was on track to be when they were linemates. Edmonton needs defense and Hjalmarsson would fit well there with a young team.
All we can do is see what Stan Bowman has set up as plans B and C. Hopefully we are not going any further than that. With the dysfucntion and two first round exits the last two years I'm not sure Bowman can afford to swing and miss too much this offseason. Next year's free agent class is much bigger, but Bowman has to succeed this summer in my opinion to be around for next summer.
Both were probably out of the question because of salary cap constraints, but with a series of salary dumping moves it could have been pulled off. It appears though that it was not going to happen anyway.
In acutality it appears that only a few teams had a shot because Parise and Suter had planned to attempt to play together all along. Seemed a lot like the NBA free agent fiasco of 2010 minus "The Decision" and a current Minnesota Wild player pretending to take offers elsewhere. Yes Dwayne Wade, we know you were playing us. In fact Nashville GM, David Poile seemed pretty close to firing off a Comic Sans letter ala Dan Gilbert.
In the end they chose Minnesota for "family" reasons. In my opinion neither chose Chicago because they would not have been "The Guy" at their respective positions. The Wild are now a low seed playoff team, but far from a Cup contender. So good luck with that!
Now the Blackhawks may not have signed either, but the fact that neither went to Detroit or Nashville is a huge benefit. Both teams had plenty of cap room to sign both.
It's on to plan B now. I don't think the Blackhawks are going to sign anyone of significance through free agency. Their big signing was retaining Johnny Oduya.
I'd expect a few trades if anything. If I had to predict a trade it would be Hjalmarsson to Edmonton for Sam Gagner. The Hawks have been linked to Gagner for a few years now. He was a linemate of Patrick Kane with the London Knights in the OHL. The logic is Kane can get Gagner back to what he was on track to be when they were linemates. Edmonton needs defense and Hjalmarsson would fit well there with a young team.
All we can do is see what Stan Bowman has set up as plans B and C. Hopefully we are not going any further than that. With the dysfucntion and two first round exits the last two years I'm not sure Bowman can afford to swing and miss too much this offseason. Next year's free agent class is much bigger, but Bowman has to succeed this summer in my opinion to be around for next summer.
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